Economic recovery, given the right conditions, will bolster UHERO’s outlook


While HawaiiThe country’s economy experienced a severe downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a reduction in the number of positive COVID-19 cases, and more continental US and US Hawaii Residents who get vaccinated are likely to boost the visitor industry and the general local economy as the year progresses. That is according to the newest university of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) Forecast for the state.

Hawaii“>Hawaii has weathered the COVID-19 pandemic better than many, if not all, other states, ”the report said. “That reflects Hawaiithe ability to shut down almost completely in the early stages of the pandemic, but we have also managed to contain a summer wave. After a public holiday, the virus numbers have dropped to their lowest level since July. “

UHERO says that while the full recovery in employment prior to the COVID-19 pandemic is still several years away, an accelerated pace of employment recovery is expected to pick up this year.

Concerns remain about troubled businesses and economic damage to low-income households. “Skilled workers could continue to work remotely, while many low-income households rely on the hardest-hit personal services.” UHERO called. “This has created disproportionate economic hardship for these families.”

Tourism industry

UHERO predicts U.S. tourism will pick up pace in the summer and fall as COVID-19 cases fall and vaccination rates rise nationwide. However, international markets are expected to lag behind. UHERO‘s Baseline Forecast estimates that “arrivals will offset half of their pandemic losses by July and visitor spending will offset nearly 70% of their losses by year-end.” Full recovery will take a few more years. “

Optimism ahead

The strength of HawaiiThe country’s economic recovery depends on a further reduction in positive COVID-19 cases, a gradual end to social distancing, the extent to which businesses can stay afloat, and an increase in visitor arrivals and spending.

UHERO offers an optimistic local outlook as vaccination increases in the US and international markets by the summer, and spending increases due to upcoming fiscal stimulus and pent-up demand. A slowdown in vaccinations, a further rise in COVID-19 cases, a decline in job prospects and / or more business losses would result in a delayed economic recovery.

visit UHERO‘s website for the entire report.

UHERO is housed in AH Mānoa’s College of Social Sciences.

This work is an example of AH Mānoa’s goal of excellence in research: promoting company research and creative work (PDF), one of four objectives set out in the Strategic Plan 2015–25 (PDF), updated December 2020.

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