Sumner La Criox
Affordable COVID-19 testing for travelers and more effective fines for face mask violations are among the ideas of one of the state’s leading economists to reopen Hawaii to tourism.
Sumner La Croix, an economics professor emeritus at the University of Hawaii at Manoa and a research fellow from the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, discussed the three keys in his talk “Reopening the Hawaiian Tourism Industry in the Age of COVID-19″ an online presentation on Thursday hosted by the Hawaii Economic Association.
“I think they are pretty clear” La Croix said. “It’s safer behavior from
Hawaiians, it is a better performance by the Hawaiian government and there is pre-flight and pre-flight passenger testing in Hawaii to reassure Hawaiian residents that tourists visiting are safe and relatively unlikely to do so Have COVID virus.
Despite calls for the Hawaiian economy to diversify, La Croix said the state is unlikely to fall below a 20 percent industry reliance because of that “This is a great place to visit.”
La Croix said tourism currently makes up about 25 percent, or $ 2 billion per month, of the state’s economy, with direct, indirect, and spillover spending. Maui County relies more on tourism, especially domestic travelers, UHERO said.
In the 1980s and 90s, Hawaii‘s economy was about 35 percent dependent on tourism, according to La Croix.
“We have actually diversified the economy” he said. “The bottom line is that tourism is still a big part of the economy. I believe we need to make more efforts to diversify the economy by promoting other industries where Hawaii is likely to have a comparative advantage. But that won’t work overnight. “
To reopen Hawaii to tourism amid COVID-19, La Croix highlighted safer behavior by Hawaiian residents who he said make bad decisions by treating peers, friends and family as low-risk contacts. If tourists don’t find Hawaii safe, many won’t travel here.
The economist imposed a low-cost penalty for missing a mask, saying a $ 150-200 fine, similar to a parking ticket, could be more effective than Honolulu‘s current penalties of up to $ 5,000 or a year in prison. He said violations of a nationwide mask mandate in Chatham, Massachusetts will result in a $ 300 fine.
“Draconian punishments that allow a court date are neither realistic nor effective” he said.
Rather than relying solely on law enforcement or the state health department, the economist suggested tapping into the University of Hawaii’s 450 trained contact tracers for enforcement. He said Honolulu and other counties may be able to use the CARES bill to hire tracers to provide citations.
Second, La Croix said, communication, metrics, contact tracking and enforcement between government agencies need to be improved to shift them from reactive to proactive.
“The DOH and other government agencies have really failed to build sufficient capacity to test, trace, isolate and enforce quarantines; This created problems with outbreaks. They spread far beyond where they had to spread. “ he said.
Third, passenger testing before departure and in Hawaii is critical to reopening, La Croix said.
When the state introduced 14-day quarantine for trans-Pacific passengers on March 21, it resulted in a 99 percent drop in tourism, he said.
The state has since discussed a pre-trip testing program that would allow travelers to bypass quarantine with evidence of a negative COVID-19 test performed within 72 hours of departure. The program, which was originally scheduled to start August 1st, has been postponed to September 1st due to an increase in Oahu falls.
La Croix said the program could be postponed again.
“The surge on Oahu puts great pressure on state resources” La Croix said in an email to The Maui News. “Since the state has not yet released details of the September 1st opening, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a delay.”
He said Maui and other neighboring islands with lowercase letters could push for direct flights from the mainland.
“There’s no reason Maui and Kauai shouldn’t open on September 1st because the Oahu epidemic isn’t under control.” he said.
When discussing test types, La Croix said that PCR tests the state is proposing for the pre-travel program could remain scarce and costly (he estimated $ 100 to $ 150 per test). He asked if Hawaii should try cheaper saliva tests.
Although less accurate, it would allow for more frequent testing, and more testing would result in increased detection, he said.
“We have to look beyond the expensive PCR test and plan now to use some of the cheaper saliva tests to screen tourists in 2021.” said the presentation.
Oceanit, Hawaii’s leading technology company, is developing a saliva-based antigen test that uses a DNA aptamer that binds tightly to the virus and is easy to scale, according to La Croix’s presentation. A patient spits into a cup at home and gets results in three to 10 minutes. The price is $ 20 and the earliest availability is between late fall this year and winter next year.
Tests of this method are currently underway at Queen’s Medical Center on Oahu, he said.
La Croix also talked about paper strip tests, which cost $ 1 to $ 2 per test and allow people to spit on a take away test strip, put it in a vial, and get results in 10 minutes. Although it is less effective than the PCR test at detecting the overall occurrence of COVID-19, it is just as effective at detecting infectious individuals, he said.
Overall, the economist said Hawaii’s ability to receive and welcome visitors depends on how well the state controls the epidemic and how confident residents are that tourists are relatively COVID-19 free.
“If we don’t control our epidemic / reopening tourism, Hawaii will face a depression in 2021 as federal aid expires.” The presentation from La Croix said.
Joe Kent, executive vice president of the Honolulu-based Grassroot Institute of Hawaii, who attended the online conversation, said that in order to reopen tourism, leaders must decide whether the long-term goal is to eradicate the virus or the familiar to develop as herd immunity.
Herd immunity occurs when enough people have developed immunity to an infectious disease that the risk of further community transmission is either eliminated or significantly reduced, according to the MD Anderson Cancer Center. This assumes that a certain percentage of the population has been exposed and infected with the disease in order for them to develop immunity with antibodies. These antibodies not only protect the sick person from re-infection for a certain period of time, but also prevent him from passing the disease on to others.
“It’s hard to imagine tourism opening up fully when the goal is to almost eradicate the virus on the islands.” Kent told the Maui News. “It seems that finding a safe way to develop herd immunity coupled with access to testing is the only way to bring tourism back completely.”
* Kehaulani Cerizo can be reached at [email protected].
