US Census data shows losses and gains for Hawaii

Oahu‘s population decreased by 12,337 residents from July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021, according to data from the US Census Bureau released Thursday, continuing a trend accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Census Bureau estimated Oahu’s population at 1,000,890 on July 1, down 1.2% from the year-earlier figure.

In releasing population estimates and “components of change” for the nation’s 3,143 counties and other statistical areas, the Census Bureau noted that “fewer births, an aging population, and increased mortality — compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic — are increasing have contributed to an increase in the number and natural decline across the country.”

In Hawaii, however, the state still recorded more births than deaths, even though the state Department of Health reported that COVID-19 claimed about 500 lives in the July-July period. And Oahu led the way with a “natural” population increase of 1,468.

That has helped mitigate somewhat the impact of the pandemic on residents who have fled the state and sought more employment opportunities because of the high cost of living, but not nearly enough to offset the exodus.

Oahu saw a net migration loss of 13,686 residents in a one-year period, census data show. Although international net migration added 652 residents to the island’s population, there was a net loss of 14,338 people who moved to the mainland.

The COVID-19 pandemic has largely crippled Hawaii’s economy for the past two years, particularly its vital tourism industry and the businesses that depend on it. Chief economist Eugene Tian said that “as the US economy has recovered faster than Hawaii, more people may have moved to the mainland.”

Tian, ​​who heads the research and economic analysis department of the state’s Ministry of Economy, Economic Development and Tourism, added that prior to the 2020 census, the Census Bureau’s statistical model historically underestimated the state’s population. With a new model, he said, population estimates could be revised later this year or early next year, but the trend of Hawaii’s population decreasing every year since 2017 will remain true.

“I feel like more people have moved to the mainland, but the magnitude may not be as high as the Census Bureau estimates,” Tian said.

Maui County’s population also fell by 434 residents to 164,221 over the 12-month period, a 0.3% decrease, according to the latest data from the Census Bureau.

Hawaii and Kauai counties saw population growth during this time, likely due to housing affordability, particularly on the Big Island, Tian said.

Hawaii County, the second most populous in the state, had an estimated 202,906 residents, according to census data, an increase of 2,160, or 1.1%.

Kauai County saw its population increase by 253 residents to 73,454, an increase of 0.3%.

Census Bureau data released in December estimated the state’s total population as of July 1 at 1,441,553, down 0.7% or 10,358 residents from the July 1, 2020 figure. The total includes the 82 residents of Kalawao County, Molokai.

The state recorded a natural population increase of 1,256 in July-July, offset by a net migration loss of 11,526 residents, according to Census Bureau data. Although Hawaii added 1,077 residents in net international migration, the number of residents moving to or from the mainland recorded a net loss of 12,603.

Tian said he expects the state’s population to continue shrinking because “our economic recovery is lagging behind that of the US” and the cost of living, especially home prices, is getting higher.

In addition, he said it will take time for international immigration to catch up to previous levels due to pandemic travel restrictions.

At the same time, the state’s natural population growth will decline, Tian said.

“The natural growth is getting smaller because births have decreased and deaths have increased in Hawaii over the past 10 years,” he said. “Over the next few years there will be more deaths than births if the trend continues.”

Population estimates for Hawaii, July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021

Total/Change/% Change/Natural Change/Net Migration

State 1,441,553 -10,358 -0.7% 1,256 -11,526

Hawaii County 202,906 2,160 1.1% -310 2,471

Honolulu County 1,000,890 -12,337 -1.2% 1,468 -13,686

Kauai County 73,454 253 0.3% -40 281

Maui County 164,221 -434 -0.3% 138 -592

note: Natural change is the web of births and deaths. The state total includes 82 residents of Kalawao County.

Source: US Census Bureau