Weather forecast for Hawaii County for May 17, 2022

Hilo

Today: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning, then possible showers in the afternoon. Altitudes around 82 near shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

This evening: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows 63 to 68 near shore to about 52 at 4000 feet. South wind around 10 km/h.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Altitudes around 83 near shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. South wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Elevations 80 to 85 near shore to about 65 near 5000 feet. West wind around 10 km/h.

This evening: Cloudy in the evening, then partly cloudy. 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 66 through 74 near shore to about 53 near 5000 feet. Breeze.

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Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning with a few showers, then partly sunny in the afternoon with a few showers. Altitudes 81 to 86 near shore to about 66 near 5000 feet. Northwest wind around 10 km/h. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waimea

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Today: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Altitudes around 81 near shore to 65-76 near 3000 feet. Northeast wind around 10 km/h.

This evening: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight. Lows around 65 near shore to 53-60 near 3000 feet. Breeze. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Altitudes around 82 near shore to 66-77 near 3000 feet. Northeast wind around 10 km/h. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

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Today: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Altitudes around 81 near shore to 65-76 near 3000 feet. Northeast wind around 10 km/h.

This evening: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight. Lows around 65 near shore to 53-60 near 3000 feet. Breeze. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Altitudes around 82 near shore to 66-77 near 3000 feet. Northeast wind around 10 km/h. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Airy. Mostly sunny in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon with a 50 percent chance of showers. Altitudes around 83 near shore to about 69 near 5000 feet. East wind 10 to 20 mph.

This evening: Airy. Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows around 67 near shore to about 52 near 5000 feet. East wind 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Airy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Altitudes around 84 near shore to about 70 near 5000 feet. East wind 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

puna

Today: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning, then possible showers in the afternoon. Altitudes around 82 near shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

This evening: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows 63 to 68 near shore to about 52 at 4000 feet. South wind around 10 km/h.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Altitudes around 83 near shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. South wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Altitudes around 84 near shore to 66 to 72 over 4000 feet. Northwest wind around 10 km/h.

This evening: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 67 to 74 offshore to 49 to 56 above 4000 feet. Southeast wind around 10 km/h.

Wednesday: Sunny. A few showers in the afternoon. Altitudes around 85 near shore to 67 to 73 over 4000 feet. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

summary

Southeast winds will produce scattered showers today and sea breeze clouds in the afternoon. Rainfall will increase in the western and central ends of the state through Thursday ahead of an approaching front, with locally heavy downpours and possible thunderstorms potentially raising flooding concerns. Conditions should improve by the weekend.

discussion

Current radar trends continue to show scattered, mostly light showers lingering over much of the islands this morning, with most of the showers being concentrated near Kauai and along the southeastern portions of the Big Island. For the remainder of today, southeast trade winds will generate cloud and showers over the preferred windward portions of the islands, while sea breeze circulations and cloud over the sheltered leeward areas in the interior are expected this afternoon. Humidity, which continues to slowly increase in the western end of the state, will increase coverage of showers around Kauai through tonight. Rains over Kauai through this afternoon will increase soil saturation, introducing the threat of hydrological concerns and potential river response to additional rains expected tonight through Wednesday night.
The transition to a wetter and more active pattern is continuing and is expected to spread across the islands from west to east by the end of this week. The wetter pattern will be the result of a slow-moving surface front and upper low approaching from northwest Kauai on Wednesday. A band of moisture in deeper layers ahead of the approaching systems is forecast to begin increasing over Kauai tonight/early Wednesday morning over Kauai before expanding eastward and increasing over Oahu and portions of Maui counties Wednesday through Thursday. This increasing moisture band will increase area coverage and intensity of precipitation on Kauai and Oahu through early Wednesday. Increased mid-level instability will increase precipitation rate potential and the likelihood of thunderstorms, increasing the risk of possible local flooding, particularly over the western and parts of the central islands through Thursday. Additionally, the upper blockage pattern across the region and associated slow movement of surface and upper features approaching the islands will increase the likelihood of heavy rain showers being trained over similar areas and flooding concerns for parts of Kauai increase by Thursday. The latest modeled precipitation data forecasts continue to support the increasing chances of potentially significant amounts of precipitation tonight and into Thursday, particularly on Kauai. Otherwise, scattered showers are expected over the eastern half of the state, with local heavy downpours also possible. Winds around Kauai will trend south ahead of the front and increase to moderate levels on Wednesday and Thursday.
The lead continues to show upper support associated with the upper low weakening, slowly moving northeast out of the area Thursday night through Friday. A high-pressure ridge is receding in the north of the state. This pattern shift should make for better conditions going into the weekend.

aviation

Low winds will stop from the south over the western end of the island chain and from the east-southeast near Big Island. Cloud cover will increase as the daytime heat sets in, but terminals remain mostly VFR. Showers over Oahu and Maui County are likely to increase this afternoon. There are currently no AIRMETs in force.

marine

Trade winds have eased over the past 24 hours, shifting from the southeast in response to an upper valley and front approaching the region. This has resulted in a land and sea wind regime being established locally that will continue as the front approaches. Guidance shows southerly winds strengthening into the fresh to locally strong category over Oahu and Kauai waters throughout today through Thursday as the front approaches/breaks west of Kauai. If this develops a Small Craft Advisory for winds over these waters cannot be ruled out in later packages. For more information on the deteriorating weather conditions related to the front, see the discussion section above.
Surf along the south facing shores has started to rise overnight with the arrival of a fresh southerly swell. Offshore buoys to the south and the offshore PacIOOS buoy at Barbers reflect this, with the peak of energy being registered in the 17 and 19 second bands. Expect the uptrend to continue today and then dwell on the second half of the week as similar reinforcement arrives on Thursday. In addition to the long-term energy movement typical of this time of year, southerly winds refreshing later today through mid-week, as well as the additional rainfall contributing to short-term unsettled conditions, will add to the mix.
Although the surf along the east-facing shores will ease as trades lose, some remaining east swell from upstream should create a small swell by mid-week before dropping off completely.
Surf along the north-facing coasts will remain low through mid-week and then trend up on Thursday as a small medium-term northwest wave arrives. Satellite data reflected this potential overnight, which showed a decent amount of strong north-west winds centered on the islands within the 300-320 degree directional band. A return to summer conditions is expected over the weekend when this source moves out.

HFO Clocks/Warnings/Notices

Flood watch Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for Niihau, Kauai,

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Data courtesy of NOAA.gov

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