Thanks to its geographic isolation, a stay-at-home order and a mandatory 14-day quarantine on all arrivals, Hawaii has had some of the lowest Covid-19 rates in the US.
But the quarantine has essentially halted tourism in Hawaii, which accounts for a quarter of the economy. As a result, nearly a third of the state’s working population has filed for unemployment.
This week, Hawaii Gov. David Ige announced a phased approach to opening up the non-tourism economy kama’aina (local economy. The plan called for car dealerships, car washes and pet grooming services to reopen in May, while waiting until June to consider reopening higher-risk businesses such as gyms, museums and theaters.
The governor also confirmed that the mandatory 14-day quarantine for all arrivals would remain in place until June. Fuller details on reopening the tourism economy –– bars, hotels, convention centers — have yet to be released, but one idea being mooted is waiving quarantine for visitors if they take a Covid-19 test before traveling to Hawaii .
“The state has to bring tourism back somehow. We need money,” said Colin Moore, public policy director at the University of Hawaii. “But the only way to make this work is to find a way to do this as safely as possible.”
According to the Hawaii Department of Labor and Industrial Relations, nearly 240,000 people have filed for unemployment since early March. The pandemic unemployment benefit scheme, which opened in May for gig workers and the self-employed, has received 28,000 applications. The state’s antiquated unemployment system resulted in a huge backlog of applications, forcing the recently unemployed to wait weeks, and in some cases more than a month, for their first payments.
The governor has extended the quarantine through the end of June, which has helped boost arrivals in Hawaii from the usual 30,000 to fewer than 1,000 most days. The mandatory 14-day quarantine requires everyone arriving in the state or traveling between the islands to go straight from the airport to their home or hotel. During the quarantine period, all groceries must be delivered. Those who break the quarantine face a maximum fine of $5,000 and/or up to a year in prison.
Local lawmakers have budgeted $36 million for airport temperature cameras, which the governor said Monday at a news conference would be part of the future screening process for arrivals at Hawaii’s airports. “It allows us to identify those who are the sickest in a way that is less intrusive than other screening methods,” Ige said. The White House has advocated their use, although the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has stated that thermal screening of airport passengers is not a particularly effective detection strategy.
“It’s a lot of money to put in place a system that makes people feel better, but that doesn’t capture a lot of the active cases that come in,” said Sumner La Croix, a research fellow at the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization.
Honolulu in late March.” data-src=”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/d6387a113fe85456efe2d57134d27dfc8b4c2876/0_302_4032_2419/master/4032.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=9c735b202a1377a2716f0903632685d5″ height=”2419″ width=”4032″ loading=”lazy” class=”dcr-1989ovb”/>Instead, he said, people should take a test before flying to Hawaii, and people who share their negative results with the state could then waive the 14-day quarantine. This system will not be error free as the test results are not always accurate and not everyone will. He also acknowledged that people flying to Hawaii may still be exposed to the virus when traveling.
But it would stop the vast majority of asymptomatic people who would have flown into the state with Covid-19, making it relatively easy to keep the number of new cases down. Hawaii’s Lieutenant Governor Josh Green; US Congressman Ed Case; and local lawmakers have expressed support for a screening strategy that includes pre-testing for the coronavirus, while the Federal Aviation Administration and US Department of Transportation have said it would be possible.
“We have to deal with outbreaks, but that shouldn’t be our main policy,” La Croix said. “Our main policy should be to prevent people with active coronavirus infections from boarding planes.”
Maintaining low Covid-19 rates will likely encourage visitors to come to the state as they will view Hawaii as a safe place. Residents who are weary of visitors – a handful were caught breaking quarantine after posting pictures of themselves on the beach – will also become more confident in letting tourism return.
Testing, contact tracing and isolation methods also need to be strengthened before the state allows tourists to return, La Croix said. In early May, the state Department of Health and Human Services announced that it was increasing the number of trained contact tracers who will help track those with whom an infected person may have come into contact to slow or stop the spread of the virus to stop.
Even after the quarantine is lifted, it could be years before the tourism industry returns to old figures. In 2019, Hawaii received a record-breaking 10 million tourists. If Hawaii’s tourism recovery drags on, double-digit unemployment rates could also persist for years.
The existing notion that Hawaii is overly dependent on tourism and the need to diversify the economy has gained momentum since the pandemic began.
“We can retrain people to start attracting more diverse industries,” Moore said. He said the governor should create reskilling opportunities for hospitality workers who have lost their jobs, government-sponsored jobs focused on public works projects, and programs for young people. “People need meaning. With prolonged unemployment, your skills begin to rot. It can lead to depression,” he said.
Coupled with persistently high unemployment rates, many Hawaiians will be forced to relocate to the US mainland for opportunities and affordable housing. Hawaii will likely take longer to recover than mainland states with more diversified economies, Moore said. Hawaii has already seen a population decline over the past three years, and the pandemic is likely to accelerate that trend.
“You’re going to lose the people you really don’t want to lose,” Moore said of the Hawaiian migration. “Well educated, younger people with families that could be the future of the state are leaving. We will lose some of the most valuable people this way.”
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