Hilo
Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, scattered showers in the afternoon. Altitudes around 82 near shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds to 15 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
This evening: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 65 near shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph turning southwest after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Altitudes around 82 near shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. East wind up to 10 km/h. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon with isolated showers. Elevations 80 to 85 near shore to about 71 near 5000 feet. West wind up to 10 km/h. Chance of rain 20 percent.
This evening: Cloudy in the evening, then partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 65 to 71 near shore to about 52 near 5000 feet. Breeze. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon with isolated showers. Elevations 80 to 85 near shore to about 71 near 5000 feet. West wind up to 10 km/h. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Airy. Mostly sunny with isolated rain showers. Altitudes around 81 near shore to 71-78 near 3000 feet. East wind up to 20 km/h. Chance of rain 20 percent.
This evening: In the evening mostly cloudy with isolated showers, after midnight partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64 near shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph turning southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning with a few showers, then partly sunny in the afternoon with a few showers. Altitudes around 81 near shore to 71-78 near 3000 feet. East wind up to 15 km/h. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Kohala
Today: Airy. Mostly sunny with isolated rain showers. Altitudes around 81 near shore to 71-78 near 3000 feet. East wind up to 20 km/h. Chance of rain 20 percent.
This evening: In the evening mostly cloudy with isolated showers, after midnight partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64 near shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph turning southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning with a few showers, then partly sunny in the afternoon with a few showers. Altitudes around 81 near shore to 71-78 near 3000 feet. East wind up to 15 km/h. Chance of rain 40 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny. Airy. A few showers in the afternoon. Altitudes around 83 near shore to about 72 near 5000 feet. East wind up to 25 km/h. Chance of rain 20 percent.
This evening: Partly cloudy. Airy. A few showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near shore to about 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast wind up to 20 km/h. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny. Airy. Isolated showers. Altitudes around 83 near shore to about 72 near 5000 feet. East wind up to 20 km/h. Chance of rain 20 percent.
puna
Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, scattered showers in the afternoon. Altitudes around 82 near shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds to 15 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
This evening: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 65 near shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph turning southwest after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Altitudes around 82 near shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. East wind up to 10 km/h. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Altitudes around 82 near shore to 66 to 73 over 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 km/h turning to northwest in the afternoon.
This evening: Partly cloudy. Lows around 69 near shore to 47 to 55 over 4000 feet. Breeze.
Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon with isolated showers. Altitudes around 82 near shore to 66 to 73 over 4000 feet. Southerly winds up to 10 km/h turning to northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Summary
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds prevail today, with shower activity mainly limited to windward and Mauka areas. Trades will ease into the light to moderate range tonight through the end of next week and winds may become light and variable for a few days mid-week. Drier than normal trade wind weather is expected to continue through Tuesday, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas along with some showers developing in leeward areas each afternoon aided by local sea breezes. Strong upper level disruption may result in an increase in the chance of rain across all or parts of the island chain on Wednesday and Thursday, with drier conditions returning towards the end of the upcoming working week.
discussion
An east-west high pressure ridge is currently on the surface about 300 miles north of Kauai, driving moderate to locally breezy trade winds into unprotected areas early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies, with cloud cover most prevalent in windward areas. Radar imagery shows flare showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, with some decaying showers intermittently drifting into leeward communities as well. The main near-term focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain probabilities.
The surface ridge north of the state will move very little today, holding moderate to locally breezy trade winds in place. A front approaching from the northwest will weaken the ridge north of the islands, bringing trade winds into the light to moderate range tonight and Sunday. The front will stall and dissipate north of the state early next week, keeping the gradient weak and keeping trade winds in the light to moderate range for much of the upcoming workweek, with winds potentially becoming light and variable in much of the condition for a few days around the middle of the week.
As for the rest of the weather details, very dry and stable conditions will continue into Sunday with inversion heights in the range of 5-6 kft and precipitation water levels remaining around 1 inch. During this time, some showers are possible over windward areas, with mostly dry conditions expected in leeward areas. However, weaker trades may allow for localized sea breeze development and some leeward showers on Sunday afternoon.
Inversion heights will rise and precipitation water values will rise closer to normal levels Monday through Tuesday, which should result in an increase in trade wind shower coverage. Showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and in the morning, with some showers also developing in leeward areas each afternoon. Both the JRC and ECMWF continue to show a strong shortwave trough moving through the region on Wednesday and Thursday, which could result in increased shower coverage and intensity over much of the island chain, with thunder not entirely ruled out. Drier trade wind weather looks set to return by Friday and continue into next weekend.
aviation
Trade winds with a few rainy low clouds early in the morning, but a dry and stable air mass will bring a reduction in clouds by midday. Expect VFR except short MVFR CIG in -SHRA over windward slopes.
AIRMET Tango will be maintained for moderate turbulence below 7000 feet above and downwind from mountainous terrain, but this may occur during the day today.
marine
A high-pressure ridge will remain north of the main Hawaiian Islands today, generating moderate to locally strong trade winds over local waters. An approaching cold front will weaken this ridge starting Sunday, bringing wind speeds down into the light to moderate range by the middle of next week.
A large west-northwest swell currently coming in about 1 to 2 feet above the model guide is creating a warning level surf along the exposed north and west shores. The alert level surge will continue through this afternoon before gradually easing later in the evening into early next week. A high surf (HSW) warning remains in effect for exposed north and west coasts through this afternoon. Big surf heights will then fall into the High Surf Advisory (HSA) range tonight and Sunday before falling below recommended levels by Sunday night. Wave directions will change from 310 direction on Sunday, 320 direction on Monday and 330 direction on Tuesday. Precursors to the next large, prolonged northwest wave will arrive on Thursday, this next wave will quickly build to HSA levels by Thursday night and may surpass HSW thresholds by early Friday morning.
The current large west-northwest swell will also generate Small Craft Advisory (SCA) seas over exposed waters. The SCA includes the windier waters near Maui County and the Big Island, as well as any water exposed to that swell. SCA conditions are likely to decrease in coverage on Sunday with gradually decreasing seas and weakening trade winds.
HFO Clocks/Warnings/Notices
High Surf Warning through 6pm HST tonight for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory through 6:00 p.m. HST tonight for all Hawaiian waters,
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Data courtesy of NOAA.gov
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