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A forecast for Honolulu‘s peak daily coronavirus cases has been revised down based on the latest data and a combination of other factors, including new restrictions and fewer travelers.
The new model, released on Sunday by the Hawaii Pandemic Applied Modeling Work Group, is based on data from the past 12 days, among other factors, and now predicts that daily COVID-19 cases for Honolulu County will continue to decline through September .
This reflects a trend reversal compared to the situation in late July and early August, when a high of up to 3,700 cases was forecast for early October due to the highly transferable delta variant, according to math professor Monique Chyba of the University of Hawaii, based on the mathematical and then known variables.
Modelers found that Honolulu had a high of 739 cases in late August, and then a shift, and the numbers have been falling since then. How far they go, however, depends on a number of factors, including vaccination rates and changes in behavior.
“It can move either way very quickly,” said Chyba.
In the most optimistic scenario, daily case numbers for Honolulu County could drop to 127 with higher vaccination rates and, in the worst case, drop to 237 with lower vaccination rates. There’s a chance they’ll sink somewhere in between, near 191.
When asked at a recent Honolulu City Council hearing, HiPAM estimated that the potential impact of the Safe Access Oahu program could reduce cases by about 30% over the next 10 days. The Safe Access Oahu program, which requires proof of vaccination or a negative COVID test for employees and guests at restaurants, bars, and other facilities, went into effect on Oahu on September 13th.
The model was based on the assumption that unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals would, on average, interact 50% less with each other, resulting in fewer transmissions.
Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi announced today that the county will extend restrictions on large gatherings through October 19.
Maui County’s daily numbers of coronavirus cases fluctuate, HiPAM noted, but the model is showing a general downward trend.
Maui’s SaferOutside restrictions went into effect last Wednesday, reducing the size of social gatherings to five indoors and 10 outdoors and requiring proof of vaccination for guests to enter restaurants, bars and gyms.
Built a model assuming that interactions between vaccinated and unvaccinated people would be reduced by 50% on average, HiPAM predicts that daily COVID cases in Maui County will decrease from a high of 114 to 18 to 21 cases.
While the forecast looks better overall, Chyba said it wasn’t time to celebrate or declare a win.
“It seems that the mitigations are doing their job,†she said, “but the problem is that many people are still unvaccinated and since we cannot eradicate the delta after it reopens, it will be back on its way. It’s not an easy situation. “
Forecasting models for the four major counties, including Kauai, Maui, and Hawaii, all reflect a downward trend over the next 10 days and appear to be on track for the most optimistic case scenarios. But caution and monitoring are still needed, said HiPAM.
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